Ufc Fight Night Prelims Predictions

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On Saturday, February 6^th, the UFC returns to Las Vegas for UFC Fight Night 184 which features a 14 bout card. However, as always, we’ll take a look at the prelims first. For this event, the UFC has scheduled a massive eight fight preliminary card.

The UFC Fight Night 184 prelims has Clay Guida vs Michael Johnson as the featured bout of the night. Joining them are other notable names like Timur Valiev, Karol Rosa, Molly McCann, Youssef Zalal, and Jerome Rivera.

The preliminary portion of the event will begin at 5PM ET and stream live on ESPN+.

UFC betting sites have released their odds for the full UFC Fight Night 184 preliminary card. Let’s step inside the betting octagon to examine these odds, identify any potential value, and TKO these predictions with a massive kick to the head.

Lots of changes on the #UFCVegas18 card and still 3 days to go. Here’s the latest pic.twitter.com/9VRRfxGYog

— MMA Form Guide (@MMAFormGuide) February 3, 2021

Ode Osbourne vs Jerome Rivera

• Ode Osbourne (-215)
• Jerome Rivera (+170)

On Monday, February 1^st, it was announced that Denys Bondar withdrew from this bout against Osbourne. Jerome Rivera has agreed to step up on five days’ notice to replace Bondar. Ironically, these two were supposed to fight on January 20^th, before Osbourne pulled out.

Rivera is a large underdog who earned his UFC contract with a win on DWCS last August. Unfortunately, he’s gone 0-2 inside the octagon. His last fight was on the January 20^th card where he lost to Francisco Figueiredo.

Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via submission. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Osbourne made his octagon debut one year ago and lost via submission to Brian Kelleher. The loss snapped a four fight win streak. Seven of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of submission. He’s 1-1 when going the distance.

Because this fight is still new, MMA betting sites don’t have any prop bets or an Over/Under as of this writing. I’m sure they will list these odds prior to fight night.

I like Osbourne in this bout. I believe his striking will be too much for Rivera to handle. Yet, Osbourne should have enough grappling chops to avoid a submission loss.

Seung Woo Choi vs Youssef Zalaal

• Seung Woo Choi (+200)
• Youssef Zalaal (-240)
• Over (-160)/Under (+140) 2.5 rounds

Choi had a rough first two fights inside the octagon in 2019 having lost to Movsar Evloev and Gavin Tucker. Yet, he bounced back 14 months ago to pick up his first UFC win via decision over Suman Mokhtarian.

Five of his eight pro wins have come via TKO/KO. He’s 3-1 when going the distance.

Youssef Zalaal won his first three UFC fights before falling to Ilia Topuria via decision last October. He went 3-1 in 2020 and looks to get back on track in 2021.

Seven of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of submission. He’s 3-3 when going the distance.

Choi has the advantage in knockout power, but Zalaal pretty much has the advantage in all other areas. I expect Zalaal to cautiously engage in striking while setting up takedowns. Eventually, he will pick up the decision win.

So go with Over 2.5 rounds (-160) and for the fight to go the distance (-140) which offers the best value.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160)

Fight goes to decision (-140)

Zalaal wins via decision (+195)

Molly McCann vs Lara Procopio

• Molly McCann (-155)
• Lara Procopio (+135)
• Over (-345)/Under (+285) 2.5 rounds

Procopio was unbeaten before joining the UFC in the summer of 2019. She lost her debut fight against Karol Rosa via split decision. This is her first fight since August 2019.

Three of her six pro wins have come via stoppage with two by way of submission. She’s 3-1 when going the distance.

🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Liverpool ✈️ Las Vegas 🇺🇸@MeatballMolly flying the flag at #UFCVegas18 this Saturday! pic.twitter.com/cQ9jrpXTtB

— UFC Europe (@UFCEurope) February 2, 2021

McCann returns to the octagon after losing to Taila Santos last July on Fight Island. The loss snapped a three fight win streak. She’s 3-2 inside the octagon.

Four of her 10 pro wins have come via TKO/KO. She’s 6-2 when going the distance.

This bout is definitely going over 2.5 rounds (-345) and the full 15 minutes (-300). Combined, the two fighters have gone the distance in 12 of 20 pro contests. McCann’s last four bouts have gone the distance.

I like McCann in this contest to win via decision. I think she bounces back with a solid performance in defending the taking down and landing more strikes.

The best value is McCann winning via decision at +110 odds. Procopio is certainly worthy of a flier as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-345)

Fight goes the distance (-300)

McCann wins via decision (+110)

Jocelyn Edwards vs Karol Rosa

• Jocelyn Edwards (+200)
• Karol Rosa (-240)
• Over (-255)/Under (+215) 2.5 rounds

Nicco Montano was the original opponent for Rosa, but she withdrew from the fight due to concussion symptoms. Jocelyn Edwards agreed to step up on less than two weeks’ notice.

Edwards made her octagon debut a few weeks ago as she beat Yanan Wu via decision. She’s won two straight fights and nine of her last 10 bouts. Eight of her 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. She’s 2-1 when going the distance.

Rosa has won four straight fights including her first two trips inside the octagon. She last competed in July 2020 and beat Vanessa Melo via decision.

Six of her 13 pro wins have come via stoppage with four by way of TKO/KO. She’s 7-1 when going the distance.

I give Edwards credit for stepping up to take on Rosa, but she’s out of her depth in this matchup. Rosa will outstrike, outwork, and outhustle Edwards for all three rounds.

This bout will go Over 2.5 rounds (-255) and the full distance (-225). Take Rosa to win via unanimous decision (+110), which is also the best value for this contest.

Over 2.5 rounds (-255)

Fight goes the distance (-225)

Rosa wins via decision (+110)

Devonte Smith vs Justin Jaynes

• Devonte Smith (-280)
• Justin Jaynes (+240)
• Over (+125)/Under (-155) 1.5 rounds

This bout was originally set for Alexa da Silva to take on Devonte Smith. However, da Silva withdrew from the fight and Justin Jaynes agreed to step up on less than a week’s notice.

Nicknamed “Guitar Hero,” Jaynes has lost two straight fights and is now 1-2 inside the octagon. He last competed in December where he lost to Gabriel Benitez via 1at round TKO.

13 of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 1-4 when going the distance. His two losses via stoppage both came in the UFC.

Devonte Smith (@KOE_KINGKAGEUFC) reflects on long injury layoff, expects to be ‘110 percent’ at #UFCVegas18 (via @mma_kings) https://t.co/NsMbnDhar0

— MMA Junkie (@MMAjunkie) February 2, 2021

Smith rode a four fight win streak into the UFC where he won his first two contests. Unfortunately, he ended up getting knocked out by Khama Worthy in his last bout which was August 2019.

All 10 of his pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. His two losses were via TKO/KO and he has never gone the distance in a pro fight.

This contest is going to be all about Smith’s reach advantage and knockout power. Jaynes is a proficient striker, but he won’t be able to withstand the bombs from Smith. I see this bout ending in the 1^st round via KO as Smith gets back to his winning ways.

Take the Under 1.5 rounds (-155) and for this fight to end inside the distance (-380). Since this bout was recently booked, sports betting sites haven’t released all of their prop bets as of yet. Keep an eye out for the prop bet of Smith winning via TKO/KO as that should offer the best value.

Under 1.5 rounds (-155)

Fight ends inside the distance (-380)

Smith wins inside the distance (-165)

Martin Day vs Timur Valiev

• Martin Day (+275)
• Timur Valiev (-335)
• Over (-105)/Under (-125) 2.5 rounds

Here is another preliminary card bout that has seen a change to the original booking. Julio Arce was pulled from this bout as he was supposed to take on Timur Valiev. Martin Day is stepping in on roughly one week’s notice.

Day joined the UFC in the fall of 2018 after three straight wins. However, it hasn’t been successful for him as he’s lost all three of his UFC bouts with the last two coming via stoppage.

Day last fought in November and lost via 1^st round submission to Anderson dos Santos. Prior to that, he lost to Davey Grant via 3^rd round KO in July 2020.

Five of his eight pro wins have come via stoppage with three by way of TKO/KO. He’s 3-2 when going the distance.

Valiev entered the UFC last year after winning six straight fights. His bout against Trevin Jones in the UFC was ruled a NC, but Valiev did eat a nasty punch in that bout before the outcome was changed.

Seven of his 16 pro wins have come via stoppage with five by way of TKO/KO. He’s 9-2 when going the distance.

Ufc Prelim Picks

Valiev is clearly the more talented fighter. Unless his chin was exposed by Jones in his last fight, he has all of the tools to beat Day. Look for Valiev to be the more polished striker and the better grappler as he wins via decision (+180).

Combined, these two men have gone the distance in 16 of their 31 pro bouts. I expect this contest to go the full 15 minutes (+115) as well. The best value for this bout is the Over 2.5 rounds at -105 odds.

Over 2.5 rounds (-105)

Fight goes the distance (+115)

Valiev wins via decision (+180)

Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques

• Mike Rodriguez (-245)
• Danilo Marques (+205)
• Over (+100)/Under (-120) 1.5 rounds

Marques enters this bout on a three fight win streak which includes a victory in his UFC debut last September via decision over Khadis Ibragimov.

Eight of his 10 pro wins have come via stoppage with four wins apiece via TKO/KO and submission. He’s 2-1 when going the distance.

Rodriguez earned his UFC contract with a DWCS win in August 2017 via 1^st round KO. Unfortunately, he’s just 2-3 inside the octagon. His last bout came in September and he lost via submission to Ed Herman. However, the ref blew a call late in the fight which would’ve given Rodriguez the win.

All 11 of his pro wins have come via stoppage with nine by way of TKO/KO. He’s 0-2 when going the distance.

FIGHT WEEK: #TGM‘s @mrodmma enters the @ufc‘s octagon for the seventh time at #UFCVegas18 on Saturday in #LasVegas! #NewEnglandMMApic.twitter.com/VlYTwsQ7Xg

Ufc Fight Night 170 Prelim Predictions

— TopGame Management (@TopGameMGMT) February 1, 2021

Rodriguez will win this fight via TKO/KO. It’s just a matter of when. Marques is an inferior striker with average grappling skills, which shouldn’t be a problem for Rodriguez.

Go with the Under 1.5 rounds (-120) and for the fight to end inside the distance (-365). Also, take the bout to end via TKO/KO as Rodriguez makes quick work of Marques. The best value is with the Under.

Mike Rodriguez vs Danilo Marques –Rodriguez (-245)

Under 1.5 rounds (-120)

Fight ends inside the distance (-365)

Rodriguez wins inside the distance (-155)

Rodriguez wins via TKO/KO (-150)

Michael Johnson vs Clay Guida

• Michael Johnson (+180)
• Clay Guida (-220)
• Over (-225)/Under (+185) 2.5 rounds

Johnson enters this bout on a three fight losing streak having last fought in May 2020 and losing via 2^nd round submission to Thiago Moises. He’s gone 3-8 in his last 11 bouts. Johnson will have a three plus inch height and reach advantage over Guida.

10 of his 19 pro wins have come via stoppage with eight by way of TKO/KO. He’s 9-5 when going the distance.

Guida enters on a two fight losing streak. He last fought and lost to Bobby Green via decision in June 2020. He’s 6-9 in his last 15 fights.

20 of his 35 pro wins have come via stoppage with 13 via submission. He’s 14-7 when going the distance.

I like this fight to go Over 2.5 rounds (-225) and most likely go the distance (-185). I see Johnson starting off strong, but fading in the latter portions, which will give Guida a chance to get back into the fight and win via decision (+275). I wouldn’t be surprised if Guida finds a submission win before time runs out.

Over 2.5 rounds (-225)

Fight goes the distance (-185)

Guida wins via decision (+275)

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